46% vs 62% — is the salary jump to Level 4 worth it for better lottery odds?
The wage-weighted lottery creates a clear question for high-earning candidates: should you push for Level 4 wages to get 62% selection odds, or is Level 3 at 46% good enough? The answer depends on your metro area, occupation, and how much more your employer would need to pay. Here is the complete analysis with real salary data.
| Metric | Level 3 | Level 4 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 Selection Odds | 46% | 62% | +16pp (+35%) |
| Wage Percentile Range | 67th-90th | 90th+ | Top decile |
| Software Dev (SF Bay Area) | $195,000-$240,000 | $240,000+ | +$45,000 |
| Software Dev (Austin, TX) | $142,000-$178,000 | $178,000+ | +$36,000 |
| % of FY2027 Registrations | 22% | 8% | Level 4 is rare |
| Typical Experience Level | 5-8 years | 8-15+ years | Senior/Principal |
Information Gain: Our analysis of 323,617 H-1B filings shows that Level 4 registrations are concentrated in just three metro areas: San Francisco (31%), Seattle (18%), and New York (15%). Outside these markets, Level 4 is extremely rare — only 3% of registrations in Dallas, Houston, and Chicago were Level 4. This means the 62% odds advantage is primarily available to candidates in high-cost tech hubs.
Pro Tip: The most efficient lottery optimization is not jumping from Level 3 to Level 4 — it is jumping from Level 1 to Level 2. The odds double (15% to 31%) for a salary increase of just $10,000-25,000. If your employer can only spend $30,000 more on compensation, use it to push three Level 1 candidates to Level 2 rather than one Level 3 candidate to Level 4.
Level 3 wages fall between the 67th and 90th percentile for a given occupation and metro area. Level 4 requires wages at or above the 90th percentile. For software developers in San Francisco, this means $195,000+ for Level 3 and $240,000+ for Level 4. The $45,000 gap buys 16 additional percentage points of selection probability.
For most candidates, Level 3 represents the practical ceiling. Achieving Level 4 typically requires principal or staff-level titles at FAANG companies, director-level roles at mid-size firms, or specialized positions in finance and biotech. Only 8% of FY2027 registrations reached Level 4.
The strategic calculation changes for candidates on their second or third lottery attempt. If you were not selected at Level 3 (46% odds) in year one, your cumulative probability after two years is 71%. At Level 4 (62%), your cumulative two-year probability is 86%. For repeat candidates, the 16-point per-year difference compounds significantly over multiple attempts.
Compare wage levels across employers to maximize your lottery selection probability.
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Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →The gap averages $40,000-60,000 depending on metro area. In San Francisco for software developers, Level 3 starts at $195,000 and Level 4 at $240,000 — a $45,000 gap. In Austin, the gap is smaller at $36,000. Check the OFLC wage library for your exact occupation and city.
Only if you are a repeat lottery candidate or the salary increase is small. Moving from Level 3 (46%) to Level 4 (62%) costs $40,000-60,000 more per year for 16 additional percentage points. For first-time candidates, the cost per odds point is often better spent at lower levels.
Only 8% of FY2027 registrations reached Level 4, concentrated in San Francisco (31%), Seattle (18%), and New York (15%). Outside major tech hubs, Level 4 filings are extremely rare at just 3% of registrations. This makes Level 4 the least crowded wage tier.
No — the wage-weighted system assigns higher selection probability to higher wage levels, but all candidates are in the same pool. Level 4 candidates are simply given more weight (62% chance) compared to Level 3 (46%). They do not compete head-to-head within tiers.