Historical second lottery data, FY2027 registration numbers, and how the new wage-weighted system changes the calculus
If you're not selected in the initial FY2027 H-1B lottery, the natural question is: will there be a second round? The answer depends on how many selected registrations don't convert to filed petitions. Here's a data-driven analysis of second lottery chances for FY2027.
| Fiscal Year | Total Registrations | Second Lottery? | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 274,237 | Yes — 2 additional rounds | COVID caused high petition drop-off |
| FY2022 | 308,613 | Yes — 1 additional round | Continued petition filing gaps |
| FY2023 | 483,927 | No | Massive duplicate registrations filled cap |
| FY2024 | 758,994 | No | Beneficiary-centric approach reduced waste |
| FY2025 | 470,342 | No | First beneficiary-centric year worked as designed |
| FY2026 | 362,524 | No | Registration numbers closer to targets |
| FY2027 | 343,981 | TBD | Wage-weighted system is new variable |
The H-1B cap is 85,000 (65,000 regular + 20,000 master's exemption). USCIS typically selects more than 85,000 registrations in the initial round — historically around 110,000–130,000 — because a significant percentage of selected registrations never convert to filed petitions. If the drop-off rate is higher than expected, USCIS may need to run additional selections.
FY2027 introduces the wage-weighted lottery, which prioritizes registrations at higher prevailing wage levels. This could change the petition filing rate because higher-wage positions are generally associated with more established employers who are more likely to follow through with petition filing. Conversely, lower-wage registrations that do get selected may have higher drop-off rates.
The beneficiary-centric system, now in its third year, has significantly reduced fraudulent duplicate registrations. With 343,981 registrations — the lowest since the electronic registration system began — USCIS may need to select a higher percentage of the pool to fill the cap, potentially increasing second lottery chances if drop-off rates remain similar to prior years.
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Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →A second lottery occurs when USCIS does not receive enough petitions from initially selected registrations to fill the 85,000 H-1B cap. This typically happens when selected beneficiaries change their minds, employers withdraw, or petitions are denied at a higher rate than anticipated. USCIS monitors filing rates and determines whether additional selections are needed.
Historically, second lottery selections have been sent in July or August — roughly 3 to 4 months after the initial selection. For FY2027, if a second round is needed, it would likely occur in July or August 2026. USCIS monitors the petition filing rate through the June 30 deadline before making this decision.
You should do both. Keep your registration active since there's no action needed on your part for a potential second lottery — USCIS automatically includes unselected registrations. Simultaneously, explore alternatives like cap-exempt employers (universities, nonprofits), O-1A visa, or Day 1 CPT programs as backup options.
The beneficiary-centric system has significantly reduced the chances of a second lottery by eliminating fraudulent duplicate registrations that inflated numbers in FY2023. However, it hasn't eliminated the possibility entirely — if legitimate petition drop-off rates exceed USCIS projections, a second round could still be needed. The wage-weighted system in FY2027 adds another variable.