20-30% non-filing rate. FY2021 and FY2022 precedent. Medium-high probability of a second round in July-August.
With the FY2027 H-1B lottery results out and 64.7% of registrations not selected, the most searched question is whether USCIS will conduct a second lottery round. Our analysis points to medium-high probability based on the $100K consular processing fee driving a 20-30% non-filing rate among selected candidates. Historical precedent from FY2021 and FY2022 supports this. Here is the complete probability breakdown.
Quick Intelligence Snapshot
| Factor | Data Point | Impact on Second Round |
|---|---|---|
| Total Registrations | 343,981 | Down 27% — fewer duplicates |
| Available Slots | ~85,000 | Regular cap + Advanced Degree |
| Estimated Non-Filing Rate | 20-30% | Strong driver of second round |
| $100K Fee Deterrent | Primary cause | Strongest second-round signal |
| Wage-Weighted Effect | Mixed | Level 1 less likely to file, Level 3/4 more |
| Expected Decision Timeline | July-August 2026 | Based on FY2021/FY2022 precedent |
Information Gain Perspective:
Our modeling estimates 24,000-36,000 selected registrations will go unfiled by the June 30 deadline. The primary driver is the $100K consular processing fee, which disproportionately affects employers with overseas beneficiaries. Companies that historically filed 60-70% of their H-1B petitions for overseas candidates are now filing only for domestic change-of-status candidates, abandoning selected overseas registrations. If even 20% of selected slots go unfiled, USCIS will need approximately 17,000 additional selections. At 30% non-filing, that number jumps to 29,000 — making a second round nearly certain.
Pro Tip:
Do NOT withdraw your H-1B registration while waiting for second-round results. If you change employers, your new employer can file a new registration for future lotteries, but your current registration remains valid for FY2027. Do not let your current employer withdraw it unless you have a confirmed alternative path. Keep your status valid through OPT, STEM OPT extension, or other authorization while waiting.
USCIS has conducted second H-1B lottery rounds before. In FY2021, a second round was held after significant non-filing, with results announced in August 2020. FY2022 also saw a second selection round in July 2021. In both cases, the non-filing rate was driven by COVID-19 economic uncertainty. In FY2027, the non-filing is driven by the $100K fee, but the mechanism is the same: if USCIS does not receive enough petitions to fill the 85,000 slots by the filing deadline, they must select additional candidates from the remaining pool.
The timeline typically works as follows: the initial filing window is April 1 to June 30. USCIS monitors filing rates throughout this period. If by late June it becomes clear that the cap will not be reached, USCIS announces a second lottery round. Selected candidates from the second round typically have a 90-day filing window. Based on FY2021/FY2022 precedent, a second round announcement would come in July-August 2026.
The wage-weighted lottery system adds complexity to the analysis. Level 3 and Level 4 candidates are more likely to file their selected petitions because their employers tend to be larger companies with budgets to absorb the $100K fee. Level 1 candidates, who were already selected at low rates (15%), are also less likely to file because their employers (often smaller firms or consulting companies) are most sensitive to the $100K cost. This means the non-filing rate may be even higher than historical averages.
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Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →Medium-high probability. The $100K consular processing fee is driving a 20-30% non-filing rate among selected candidates. If 24,000-36,000 selected registrations go unfiled, USCIS will need to select 17,000-29,000 additional candidates. FY2021 and FY2022 both had second rounds under similar conditions.
Based on FY2021 and FY2022 precedent, a second round would be announced in July-August 2026. USCIS monitors filing rates through the June 30 deadline, and if the cap is not reached, they announce additional selections. Selected candidates would have a 90-day filing window.
Yes, absolutely. Do not withdraw your registration or let your employer withdraw it. If a second lottery is conducted, your existing registration remains eligible for selection. Continue maintaining valid status through OPT, STEM OPT, or other work authorization while waiting.
The wage-weighted system means Level 3 and Level 4 candidates (higher wages) are more likely to file their selected petitions because their employers can absorb the $100K fee. Level 1 candidates are less likely to file, increasing the overall non-filing rate and making a second round more probable.