Will there be a second FY2027 lottery round? We break down the math, historical precedent, and what unselected candidates should realistically expect.
If you were not selected in the FY2027 H-1B lottery, the question burning in your mind is: will there be a second round? The answer depends on how many selected candidates actually file petitions. USCIS only runs a second lottery when the number of filed petitions falls below the 85,000 cap. This page provides a detailed probability analysis based on FY2027 registration numbers, historical no-show rates, and the impact of the wage-weighted system on filing behavior.
Quick Answer: A second FY2027 lottery round has an estimated 20-30% probability. With ~343,981 registrations and 35.3% selection rate, approximately 121,400 were initially selected. If 20% do not file, ~97,000 petitions are submitted — still above the 85K cap. A second round requires a no-show rate above ~30%. USCIS typically announces in July if needed.
| Scenario | No-Show Rate | Petitions Filed | Second Round? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Case (for cap) | 15% | ~103,200 | No — well above 85K |
| Expected Case | 20% | ~97,100 | No — still above 85K |
| High Attrition | 25% | ~91,000 | Unlikely — marginally above |
| Borderline | 30% | ~85,000 | Possible — right at cap |
| Second Round Trigger | 32%+ | ~82,500 or less | Yes — below 85K cap |
The FY2027 lottery had approximately 343,981 registrations — down 27% from the previous year. With an overall selection rate of 35.3%, roughly 121,400 registrants were initially selected. For USCIS to need a second round, the number of actually filed petitions must fall below the 85,000 annual cap (65,000 regular + 20,000 U.S. master's exemption). This means the no-show rate — the percentage of selected registrants who do not file a petition — needs to exceed approximately 30%.
Historical no-show rates provide context but not certainty. In FY2024, the no-show rate was approximately 28-32%, which triggered a second round in September. In FY2025, the no-show rate was lower at approximately 18-22%, and no second round was needed. The wage-weighted system introduces a new variable: higher-wage candidates (Level 3 and 4) are more likely to be at established, large employers who follow through on filings. Lower-wage candidates at consulting firms sometimes have higher no-show rates due to project cancellations or employer changes. Since the weighted lottery selects proportionally more high-wage candidates, the overall no-show rate may be lower than historical averages.
Another factor working against a second round: the $100K fee. This fee primarily affects large IT consulting firms filing for consular processing. Some of these employers may choose not to file for selected employees due to the additional cost, which could increase the no-show rate. However, this effect is likely marginal since the fee only applies to a subset of employers meeting specific thresholds. Our overall estimate: a 20-30% probability of a second round, with July 2026 as the earliest likely announcement date. Unselected candidates should maintain their current visa status, NOT withdraw their registration, and proactively research cap-exempt employers as a parallel path.
Universities, nonprofit research orgs, and government labs can sponsor H-1B visas year-round without the lottery.
Search Cap-Exempt Sponsors →Search thousands of verified H-1B sponsors by company, industry, and location.
Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →Based on historical precedent, USCIS typically evaluates whether a second round is needed in June-July, after the initial filing window (April 1 - June 30) closes and they can count actual petitions received. If a second round is needed, the announcement usually comes in July with selections released in August-September. For FY2024, the second round was announced in August and selections went out in September 2023.
Absolutely not. Do NOT withdraw your FY2027 registration under any circumstances. Even if you have secured a cap-exempt position, keeping your registration active costs nothing and preserves your chance at a second round if one occurs. If you are selected in a second round, you or your new employer can decide whether to proceed with the cap-subject filing at that point. There is no penalty for being selected and choosing not to file.
Slightly less likely. The wage-weighted system preferentially selects higher-wage candidates at Level 3 and Level 4, who tend to be at larger, more established employers with higher petition filing rates. Under the old random lottery, more Level 1 candidates from consulting firms were selected — and these had historically higher no-show rates (sometimes 30-40% at consulting firms vs. 10-15% at tech companies). With fewer Level 1 selections overall, the aggregate no-show rate is expected to be lower, reducing second round probability.
Your main options are: (1) Cap-exempt employers — universities, nonprofit research organizations, and government research entities can sponsor H-1B year-round without the lottery. Search for these on Wisa. (2) Wait for a possible second round (20-30% chance, July announcement). (3) If on OPT, apply for STEM OPT extension (24 months for STEM degrees). (4) Consider O-1 visa if you have extraordinary ability credentials. (5) Explore L-1 intracompany transfer if your employer has international offices. (6) Re-register for FY2028 lottery starting in March 2027.