A detailed breakdown of H-1B lottery selection probabilities based on prevailing wage levels for the 2026 filing season.
The FY2027 H-1B lottery introduced a wage-weighted selection process, dramatically altering the odds for beneficiaries. This guide provides a clear analysis of the H-1B lottery odds by wage level for 2026, offering crucial insights for international professionals and employers to strategize effectively.
| Wage Level | Selection Odds (FY2027) | Trend vs FY2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | ~15% | ↓ 10% |
| Level 2 | ~31% | ↑ 5% |
| Level 3 | ~46% | ↑ 10% |
| Level 4 | ~62% | ↑ 8% |
| Overall Selection Odds | 35.3% | ↑ 5% |
Our analysis of the FY2027 H-1B lottery results indicates a clear and sustained impact of the wage-weighted selection. While the overall number of registrations decreased, the disparity in selection rates between Level 1 and Level 4 positions has widened. This suggests that employers are increasingly adapting their filing strategies to prioritize higher-skilled roles, making the lottery more competitive for entry-level positions and significantly more favorable for experienced professionals.
When evaluating job offers for H-1B sponsorship, always inquire about the proposed prevailing wage level. A Level 3 or 4 position not only reflects higher compensation but also provides a substantial advantage in the lottery, a critical factor for your immigration planning.
The H-1B lottery for FY2027, which closed on March 19, 2026, marked the second year of the wage-weighted selection process. This system prioritizes registrations based on the highest prevailing wage level certified by the Department of Labor (DOL). The four wage levels (Level 1 being entry-level, Level 4 being expert) directly correlate with the likelihood of selection, as evidenced by the FY2027 odds.
The significant difference in selection odds—from ~15% for Level 1 to ~62% for Level 4—underscores USCIS's intent to favor highly skilled and highly compensated foreign workers. This shift encourages employers to file for more senior positions, reducing the number of speculative filings for entry-level roles. For beneficiaries, this means that investing in skills and experience that justify a higher wage level is a direct pathway to improving H-1B lottery success.
For FY2027, Level 1 H-1B lottery odds were approximately 15%. This is the lowest selection probability among all wage levels under the new wage-weighted system.
For FY2027, Level 3 odds were ~46%, while Level 4 odds were ~62%. Both offer significantly better chances than lower levels, with Level 4 being the most advantageous.
The wage-weighted lottery applies only to cap-subject H-1B registrations. Cap-exempt petitions, transfers, amendments, and extensions are not subject to this lottery system.
Get Wisa provides data on historical H-1B filings, including wage levels, allowing you to assess an employer's strategy and your potential lottery odds based on their typical sponsorship patterns.
Search thousands of verified H-1B sponsors by company, industry, and location.
Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →For FY2027, Level 1 H-1B lottery odds were approximately 15%. This is the lowest selection probability among all wage levels under the new wage-weighted system.
For FY2027, Level 3 odds were ~46%, while Level 4 odds were ~62%. Both offer significantly better chances than lower levels, with Level 4 being the most advantageous.
The wage-weighted lottery applies only to cap-subject H-1B registrations. Cap-exempt petitions, transfers, amendments, and extensions are not subject to this lottery system.
Get Wisa provides data on historical H-1B filings, including wage levels, allowing you to assess an employer's strategy and your potential lottery odds based on their typical sponsorship patterns.