Estimate your chances of being selected in the H-1B lottery based on historical selection rates, registration volume, and degree category.
The H-1B visa lottery is one of the most uncertain steps in the sponsorship process. With registrations regularly exceeding 400,000 for just 85,000 available slots, understanding your odds is essential for planning. Wisa provides historical lottery data and selection rate estimates so you can make informed decisions about your immigration strategy.
Each fiscal year, USCIS conducts a random selection process for cap-subject H-1B petitions. The process works in two stages:
Since FY2024, USCIS selects by unique beneficiary rather than by registration, which eliminated the advantage of having multiple employers submit registrations on your behalf.
Lottery selection rates have fluctuated significantly:
Applicants with a U.S. master's degree or higher effectively get two chances at selection. If not selected in the 20,000 advanced-degree pool, they remain eligible for the 65,000 regular cap. This historically gives advanced-degree holders roughly 5-10 percentage points higher odds than regular-cap applicants.
Your individual odds depend on several variables: total registration volume for the fiscal year, whether you have a U.S. advanced degree, and whether USCIS conducts a second round of selections (which has happened in recent years when selected registrants don't follow through with full petitions).
If the lottery does not select you, consider alternatives such as cap-exempt employers (universities, nonprofits, government research organizations), O-1 extraordinary ability visas, L-1 intracompany transfer visas, or extending your OPT status while trying again the following year.
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Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →For FY2026, the estimated selection rate is approximately 25-30% for a single registration. If you hold a U.S. master's degree or higher, your odds are roughly 30-35% due to the advanced degree exemption. These rates fluctuate based on total registration volume each year.
Yes, multiple employers can submit registrations on your behalf. However, since FY2024, USCIS uses beneficiary-centric selection, meaning duplicate registrations for the same person do not increase selection odds. Each unique beneficiary gets one chance at selection regardless of how many registrations are submitted.
The H-1B registration period typically opens in early March. USCIS conducts the lottery shortly after the registration window closes (usually late March). Selected registrants are notified and have until June 30 to file the full petition. The H-1B visa becomes effective on October 1.
Yes, USCIS has conducted second and even third rounds of selections in recent years. This happens when selected registrants don't file petitions or petitions are denied or withdrawn. Second-round selections typically occur in July or August.