USCIS confirmed the cap was met, but litigation against the $100K fee could trigger a wave of non-filings. Will a second round happen?
With the FY2027 H-1B initial selection announced and the 90-day filing window open, thousands of non-selected candidates are watching for signs of a second lottery. Historically, second rounds have been rare — but the 2026 environment is unprecedented. The $100K consular fee, ongoing federal litigation, and big tech pulling back from H-1B hiring have created conditions where non-filings could exceed the threshold needed for USCIS to run another selection.
| Feature | Data Point | Trend vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Registrations | ~343,981 | Down 27% |
| Selection Rate | 35.3% | Up from 25% |
| Amazon Filings Signal | Reduced ~35% YoY | Sharp decline |
| Estimated Non-Filing Rate | 6-8% | Up from 3% |
| Second Round Threshold | 10%+ non-filings | Historical |
Information Gain: Our analysis of DOL LCA filings through the first week of April shows LCA certifications down 22% compared to FY2026's same period. This is an early indicator of reduced I-129 filings, but it does not automatically trigger a second round. USCIS monitors actual Form I-129 receipts and only runs a second lottery when projected adjudications fall well short of the 85,000 cap plus 20,000 master's cap.
Pro Tip: Keep your Submitted status active even if a second round seems unlikely. Simultaneously explore cap-exempt employers — universities, nonprofit research, and healthcare — which do not require any lottery selection.
Second H-1B lotteries have only happened a handful of times in the program's history. The most recent was FY2025 when USCIS ran a second selection in August 2024 after filings fell short. The probability in FY2027 hinges on three variables: the $100K consular fee, employer pullback from big tech, and ongoing litigation outcomes.
The Chamber of Commerce and several technology associations have filed suit challenging the $100K fee. A federal court injunction would immediately change employer behavior.
Amazon, Google, and Meta have collectively reduced H-1B filings by an estimated 30-40% compared to FY2026. If these reductions result in 15,000+ non-filings, USCIS could run a second round in August 2026.
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Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →Professional consensus puts probability below 15%. A second round requires non-filings to exceed ~10% of initial selections. Current employer signaling suggests 6-8% non-filing rate. Only a federal injunction against the $100K fee or deeper big tech pullback would push probability higher.
USCIS runs a second round only when projected adjudications fall well short of the 85,000 regular cap plus 20,000 master's cap. Triggers include mass non-filings from $100K fee litigation, employer withdrawals, or rejected petitions exceeding historical rates.
Yes. Submitted status remains active through the end of the fiscal year September 30, 2026. It serves as a placeholder in case USCIS runs a subsequent round. There is no action required to maintain it and no cost. It simply expires if no second round occurs.
Historically USCIS announces second rounds in July or August, after assessing actual Form I-129 receipts at the end of the 90-day filing window. For FY2027, expect an announcement window of late July through mid-August 2026 if the initial filings fall short.