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H-1B Wage-Weighted Lottery: How Many Entries Does Your Wage Level Get?

Level 1 = 1 entry (~15% odds), Level 2 = 2 entries (~31% odds), Level 3 = 3 entries (~46% odds), Level 4 = 4 entries (~62% odds) — calculate your exact FY2027 selection probability

The FY2027 H-1B lottery is the first to use wage-weighted selection. Under this system, your prevailing wage level determines how many 'entries' your registration effectively receives in the lottery. Higher wage levels get proportionally more entries, translating to significantly better selection odds. Here's how the math works.

Quick Answer: Under the wage-weighted system, each wage level receives a different number of effective lottery entries: Level 1 = 1 entry (~15% selection rate), Level 2 = 2 entries (~31% selection rate), Level 3 = 3 entries (~46% selection rate), Level 4 = 4 entries (~62% selection rate). These are estimates based on the final rule's weighting structure and FY2027's ~344,000 registrations competing for ~85,000 slots. Your actual odds depend on the distribution of registrations across wage levels.

Estimated FY2027 Selection Rates by Wage Level

Wage LevelEffective EntriesEst. Selection RateTypical Salary Range
Level 4 (Fully Competent)4 entries~62%$170K+ (varies by city/SOC)
Level 3 (Experienced)3 entries~46%$130K-$170K (varies by city/SOC)
Level 2 (Qualified)2 entries~31%$100K-$130K (varies by city/SOC)
Level 1 (Entry)1 entry~15%$70K-$100K (varies by city/SOC)

Visa Insights: How the Wage-Weighted Math Works

The wage-weighted lottery assigns each registration a number of effective entries proportional to its wage level. Think of it like a raffle: Level 1 registrations get 1 ticket, Level 2 gets 2 tickets, Level 3 gets 3 tickets, and Level 4 gets 4 tickets. USCIS then draws from this weighted pool until the 85,000 cap is filled.

With approximately 344,000 registrations for FY2027 and 85,000 available slots, the overall selection rate would be ~25% in an unweighted lottery. But weighting dramatically shifts the odds. If the registration distribution is roughly 40% Level 1, 30% Level 2, 20% Level 3, and 10% Level 4, the weighted entries create a total pool of approximately 688,000 effective entries — making each entry worth about 12.4% selection probability. Level 4 with 4 entries gets ~49.6%, Level 3 with 3 entries gets ~37.2%, and so on.

The exact odds depend on the actual distribution of registrations across wage levels — which USCIS has not yet published for FY2027. The estimates above are based on immigration attorney modeling using prior year registration data and the final rule's weighting structure. Actual rates will be published after the selection process completes.

Real Wage Level Scenarios and Odds

  • Entry-level SDE at consulting firm (Level 1, $82,000) — 1 entry in weighted lottery. Estimated ~15% selection rate. In an unweighted lottery, would have had ~25%. The wage-weighted system reduces entry-level odds by approximately 40%.
  • Mid-career data scientist at tech company (Level 3, $155,000) — 3 entries in weighted lottery. Estimated ~46% selection rate. Nearly 3x better odds than Level 1. This is the sweet spot — high odds without requiring Level 4 compensation.
  • Senior quant at hedge fund (Level 4, $225,000) — 4 entries in weighted lottery. Estimated ~62% selection rate. More likely than not to be selected in a single lottery cycle.

Related Job Titles by Typical Wage Level

  • Level 4: Engineering Manager, Principal Scientist, Quantitative Researcher
  • Level 3: Senior Software Engineer, Data Scientist, Lead Analyst
  • Level 2: Software Engineer, Business Analyst, Financial Analyst
  • Level 1: Junior Developer, Associate Consultant, Entry-Level Analyst

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Frequently Asked Questions

Are these selection rates official USCIS numbers?

No. USCIS has not published exact selection rates by wage level for FY2027. These are estimates based on the final rule's weighting structure (proportional entries by wage level) and approximately 344,000 total registrations. The actual rates depend on the distribution of registrations across wage levels, which USCIS will publish after selection is complete. Immigration attorneys and researchers use these models for planning purposes.

Can I improve my odds by negotiating a higher salary?

Potentially — if a higher salary moves you into a higher wage level for your SOC code and work location. However, the wage level on the registration was already set when your employer registered in March. For FY2027, your odds are fixed based on what was submitted. For future lottery cycles, negotiating a higher salary that pushes you from Level 2 to Level 3 could roughly double your effective entries.

Is the wage-weighted system definitely being used for FY2027?

Yes. The DHS final rule implementing the wage-weighted H-1B selection system was finalized and applies to the FY2027 registration period. FY2027 is the first fiscal year using this system. All registrations submitted during the March 7-19, 2026 window will be selected using the wage-weighted algorithm.

Do the wage levels correspond to actual salary or prevailing wage percentiles?

The wage level on the H-1B registration corresponds to the prevailing wage tier for the specific SOC code and work location. Level 1 = 17th percentile, Level 2 = 34th percentile, Level 3 = 50th percentile (median), Level 4 = 67th percentile. The actual salary must meet or exceed the prevailing wage for the assigned level. The same salary can be different levels in different cities.

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