Level 1 at ~15% vs Level 4 at ~62% — the real numbers behind the new lottery system and what you can do about it
The wage-weighted H-1B lottery creates a clear hierarchy of selection odds based on prevailing wage levels. For the first time, we can put concrete numbers on the advantage senior professionals have over entry-level applicants. This page breaks down the odds at each level, shows how employer salary decisions shift lottery probabilities, and provides actionable strategies for workers at every career stage.
Quick Answer: Under the FY2027 wage-weighted H-1B lottery, estimated selection odds by wage level are: Level 1: ~15%, Level 2: ~30%, Level 3: ~45%, Level 4: ~62%. A Level 4 senior professional is roughly 4x more likely to be selected than a Level 1 entry-level worker. The single most impactful strategy is negotiating a salary that crosses the next wage level threshold.
| Company | H-1B Filings | Dominant Wage Level | Est. Selection Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 55,150 | Level 2-3 | 30-45% |
| Microsoft | 34,626 | Level 2-3 | 30-45% |
| 33,416 | Level 3-4 | 45-62% | |
| Infosys | 32,840 | Level 1 | ~15% |
| Tata Consultancy Services | 28,950 | Level 1 | ~15% |
| Cognizant | 26,700 | Level 1 | ~15% |
| Deloitte | 18,200 | Level 2 | ~30% |
| Apple | 15,800 | Level 3-4 | 45-62% |
The wage-weighted lottery assigns entries proportional to wage level. With approximately 400,000+ registrations for 85,000 slots, the distribution of weighted entries creates a significant gap between levels:
Level 1 (17th percentile wage): ~1x weight. Estimated selection rate: 15%. This is the entry-level tier — new graduates, junior analysts, and first-time H-1B applicants typically fall here. Approximately 35-40% of all H-1B registrations are at Level 1.
Level 2 (34th-50th percentile wage): ~2x weight. Estimated selection rate: 30%. Workers with 2-5 years of experience often qualify. The jump from Level 1 to Level 2 is the most impactful — it doubles your odds with a relatively modest salary increase (typically $15K-$25K).
Level 3 (50th-67th percentile wage): ~3x weight. Estimated selection rate: 45%. Mid-career professionals, senior individual contributors, and specialized roles. Represents approximately 15-20% of registrations.
Level 4 (67th+ percentile wage): ~4x weight. Estimated selection rate: 62%. Senior engineers, managers, directors, and highly specialized roles. Represents approximately 10-15% of registrations but receives the highest per-registration odds.
The most actionable strategy for any H-1B applicant is negotiating a salary that crosses the next wage level threshold. Step 1: Look up the prevailing wage for your SOC code and area on the DOL Foreign Labor Application Gateway. Step 2: Identify the Level 2 threshold. Step 3: Present the lottery odds math to your employer — many will increase salary by $15K-$25K to double your selection probability, which protects their hiring investment.
Search Wisa to see what wage levels top employers offer — your lottery odds depend on it.
Search H-1B Wage Levels →Search thousands of verified H-1B sponsors by company, industry, and location.
Search H-1B Sponsors on Wisa →Approximately 4x better. Level 4 workers have an estimated 62% selection rate compared to Level 1's estimated 15%. This is because Level 4 registrations receive approximately 4x as many lottery entries as Level 1 registrations.
It depends on your occupation and geographic area. Typically, the gap between Level 1 and Level 2 is $15,000-$25,000. For a software developer in a major metro area, Level 1 might be $80,000 and Level 2 might be $100,000. Check the DOL OEWS data for your specific SOC code and area.
Senior professionals at Level 3-4 wages are significantly advantaged under the new system, with 45-62% selection odds. However, with 400,000+ registrations, even Level 4 is not guaranteed. Senior professionals should still have backup plans and consider timing strategies if they have multiple attempts available.
The wage level is determined by the actual offered salary relative to the prevailing wage for the occupation and area. Your employer cannot simply 'choose' a higher level — they must actually pay a salary that meets or exceeds the threshold. However, they can increase your offered salary to cross the next threshold, which is a legitimate and common strategy.