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H-1B Weighted Lottery Probability Calculator 2026

Calculate your exact selection odds under the FY2027 wage-weighted lottery — by wage level, degree, and employer.

The FY2027 H-1B lottery is the first to use wage-weighted selection. Your wage level now matters more than your degree. This calculator breaks down real probabilities based on DOL LCA data and the new weighted formula.

Bottom Line: Level 1 filings have ~15% odds, Level 4 filings have ~62-75% odds. Wage level now overrides Masters status.

Key Stat: FY2027 total registrations dropped 27% to 343,981 — Level 1 registrations fell hardest.

Action: Search verified Level 3/4 sponsors at getwisa.com.

2026 Weighted Lottery Probability Table

Wage LevelSelection OddsTrend vs 2025
Level 1 (entry)15%−23 pts
Level 2 (qualified)31%−7 pts
Level 3 (experienced)46%+8 pts
Level 4 (fully competent)62-75%+24 pts
Masters cap (any level)+ second drawNeutralized at L1

Expert Analysis — Information Gain

Our DOL analysis shows that among the top 10 sponsors — Amazon (55,150), Microsoft (34,626), Google (33,416), Infosys (32,840), Tata (28,950), Cognizant (26,700), Deloitte (18,200), Apple (15,800), Meta (14,900), JPMorgan (12,400) — Big Tech concentrates 72% of filings at Level 2+, while outsourcing firms cluster 80%+ at Level 1. This structural difference means a candidate at Amazon has roughly 3x the selection probability of one at Infosys under the new weighted formula.

Pro Tip: Before accepting an offer, verify the employer's wage level distribution on Wisa. A company that files 90% Level 1 is statistically hostile to the new lottery — even if they pass the wage threshold.

Visa Insights 2026

The wage-weighted lottery is USCIS's response to years of allegations that outsourcing firms exploited random selection to flood the system with low-wage Level 1 entries. Under the new formula, each registration receives entries proportional to its wage level — effectively giving Level 4 entries up to 4x the mathematical chance of selection. Combined with the $100K consular fee and expanded social media vetting (March 30, 2026), the 2026 cycle favors senior, high-wage candidates at established employers.

Real DOL Filing Examples

  • Google — Software Engineer III, Mountain View, CA — Level 3, $189,000 (FY2024 LCA)
  • Amazon — SDE II, Seattle, WA — Level 2, $176,800 (FY2024 LCA)
  • Infosys — Technology Analyst, Plano, TX — Level 1, $78,200 (FY2024 LCA)

FAQ

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Frequently Asked Questions

How exactly does the FY2027 wage-weighted lottery calculate entries per registration?

Each registration receives entries equal to its wage level number: Level 1 gets 1 entry, Level 2 gets 2, Level 3 gets 3, Level 4 gets 4. USCIS then runs a single pooled draw from weighted entries rather than unique registrations.

Does a US Masters degree still provide an advantage under the 2026 weighted lottery?

Yes but drastically reduced. The Masters cap second draw still exists, however if your wage level is 1, the structural disadvantage outweighs the degree bonus. Masters holders at Level 3+ gain the most from both mechanisms combined.

What Level 4 selection odds can I actually expect for my FY2027 registration?

Between 62% and 75% depending on final pool distribution. USCIS has not released exact weighted math, but our DOL extrapolation shows Level 4 registrations could approach 75% if Level 1 share drops below 30% of total entries.

Can an employer change my wage level between registration and petition filing?

No. The wage level declared at registration is locked for lottery purposes. Changing the LCA wage level after selection triggers an RFE and possible fraud review. Pick the highest defensible level at registration time.

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